IRI. Pronóstico de evolución de La Niña elaborado en enero de 2023

  miércoles 18 de enero de 2023

En diciembre de 2022, las temperaturas ecuatoriales de la superficie del mar (SST, por sus siglas en inglés) en el Océano Pacífico tropical central y oriental se mantuvieron más frías de lo normal, exhibiendo condiciones persistentes de La Niña (el valor del índice NINO3.4 en diciembre de 2022 fue de -0,84 °C). Según el pronóstico CPC ENOS de principios de enero, es probable que La Niña continúe en la primavera del hemisferio norte (67% de probabilidad durante marzo-mayo de 2023), y ENSO-neutral se convertirá en la categoría más probable en las temporadas posteriores. El patrón prolongado de TSM de La Niña en el Pacífico tropical afecta el pronóstico climático estacional asociado, que se describe a continuación. No hay anomalías fuertes de SST presentes en los océanos Índico tropical y Atlántico tanto en las observaciones como en el pronóstico.

IRI Seasonal Climate Forecast Announcement] IRI Seasonal Forecast Issued January 2023

Yahoo/Buzón

• 

  IRI Products <products@iri.columbia.edu>Cancelar suscripción

  Para:IRI Forecast

  mar, 17 ene a las 17:40

  The International Research Institute for Climate and Society has issued its seasonal climate forecast for the coming four seasons. It is available at https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/.
  

  
  

  In December 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained cooler than normal, exhibiting persistent La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in December 2022 was -0.84C). According to the early-January CPC ENSO Forecast, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during Mar-May 2023), with ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category in subsequent seasons. The prolonged La Niña SST pattern in the tropical Pacific does impact the associated seasonal climate forecast, described below. No strong SST anomalies are present in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans in both observations and the forecast.

  MORE...

  The IRI climate forecasts are issued monthly, on or about the 15th of the month. For most of the globe, they show estimated probabilities that precipitation and temperature over the next four upcoming 3-month periods will be below normal, near normal or above normal. The forecasts range out to 6 months into the future, and can be viewed for the globe as a whole or for an individual continent in somewhat greater detail.  Details of the forecast system, post-processing, and recommended references for citation can be found here.
  

  
  

  Please distribute this notice to those who may be interested in the material and please consider a tax-deductible donation to support our climate forecast work.
  

  
  

  Our upcoming ENSO forecast will be published January 19, 2023
  Our next seasonal climate forecast will be published February 15, 2023.
  
  Please visit our Forecast Licensing page for more information about access to our raw forecast data.
  
  We welcome your feedback,
  The IRI Forecasting Team
  

  --
  To subscribe to any of the IRI email lists, please visit https://iri.columbia.edu/subscribe/