IRI ENSO Forecast

La mayoría de los modelos predicen que el Niño comenzará en los próximos dos meses y permanecerá hasta el otoño del hemisferio sur del 2015

CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

Published: October 9, 2014

CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabilities

Season	La Niña	Neutral	El Niño
SON 2014	~0%	49%	51%
OND 2014	~0%	38%	62%
NDJ 2014	1%	32%	67%
DJF 2014	1%	34%	65%
JFM 2015	1%	36%	63%
FMA 2015	2%	40%	58%
MAM 2015	3%	45%	52%
AMJ 2015	5%	47%	48%
MJJ 2015	8%	49%	43%

IRI ENSO Forecast

CPC/IRI ENSO Update

Published: October 9, 2014

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3°C (Niño-3.4) to +1.1°C (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 – January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 November 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.