Clima Predicción de El Niño Univ. de Columbia

viernes 19 de diciembre de 2014
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

EEUU. La mayor parte de las predicciones del Niño indican condiciones Niño débiles durante diciembre a febrero, continuando en la mayor parte de la primavera del hemisferio norte (otoño hemisferio sur) en el 2015

IRI ENSO Forecast

2014 December Quick Look

Published: December 18, 2014

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections

During November through early December the SST exceeded thresholds for weak Niño conditions, although only some of the atmospheric variables indicate an El Niño pattern. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the December-February season in progress, continuing through most or all of northern spring 2015.

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  Figure 1
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  Figure 3
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  Figure 2
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  Figure 4

Historically Speaking

El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they
• Tend to reach their maximum strength during Dec-Feb
• Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years
• Typically recur every 2 to 7 years

Figure 1 is based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters, in association with the official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Figure 3 is purely objective, based on regression, using equally weighted model predictions from the plume